"The Future of Energy: China’s Challenge to Western Dominance in Fusion Research"

Western governments and investors have spent much of the past week grappling with new developments emerging from China.

In an unexpected turn, the artificial intelligence company DeepSeek has risen from relative obscurity to challenge the U.S.'s leading position in the AI industry, causing market volatility and prompting officials to reconsider concerns over national security and data integrity.

However, another, less-publicized development has caught the attention of security experts: a series of low-resolution satellite images revealing a massive X-shaped structure in the heart of Mianyang, China. The building’s four wings extend from a central hub, and experts from the national security think tank CNA suggest it likely houses a state-of-the-art laser nuclear fusion research facility.

In such a facility, lasers fired from the four wings would converge on a central chamber to heat fuel pellets to 100 million degrees Celsius, mimicking the extreme conditions found in the sun. Laser-driven fusion is significant not only for simulating nuclear weapons explosions but also for potentially ushering in a new era of clean energy. If successful, nuclear fusion could offer an almost unlimited source of green power.

The Geopolitical energy competition

While U.S. scientists have been at the forefront of fusion technology, including a groundbreaking achievement two years ago at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory where more energy was produced by fusion than was required to initiate the reaction, China's Mianyang facility appears to be on a much larger scale—at least 50% bigger than its American counterpart. This suggests that China's ambitions may go beyond merely catching up to the West in fusion research—they could be aiming to surpass it.

A clear indication of China's serious commitment to this energy race came last week, when the Chinese Academy of Sciences proudly announced a significant milestone: the country's fusion drive, known as the "artificial sun," successfully ran for 1,066 seconds—more than double the previous record. State-run media hailed the achievement with images of the doughnut-shaped Tokamak reactor, proudly displaying the Chinese flag atop the machine.

Unlike nuclear fission, which releases energy by splitting atoms, fusion combines two hydrogen atoms to form a new element, such as helium. The resulting energy is immense, and if harnessed on Earth, fusion could provide nearly limitless energy without the radioactive waste produced by fission.

Fusion energy breakthroughs

Fusion has long been an ambitious goal, particularly since the postwar years when China was still a technological and economic newcomer. Despite decades of effort, scientists have struggled to unlock the full potential of this powerful energy source.
In the past 25 years, China’s consistent progress has transformed it into a key player in fusion energy, investing billions of dollars in an effort to unlock the potential of this powerful technology.

"There's no question that they're making tremendous progress; they view nuclear—both fission and fusion—as a major national priority," says George Borovas, a nuclear energy lawyer at Hunton Andrews Kurth and board member of the World Nuclear Association. "They have a clear objective, and it’s very well-coordinated."
China's early fusion efforts received significant support from collaborations with Western nations, especially after the country joined the World Trade Organization in the early 2000s.

In 2003, China became a partner in the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER), a global fusion project initiated in the 1980s. Although construction on ITER began in 2010, the project has faced ongoing delays, pushing its operational target from 2020 to 2025 and more recently to 2034. ITER has been described as “the most delayed and most cost-inflated science project in history.”

While China remains involved in ITER, growing geopolitical tensions among its partners have surfaced. As Western projects struggle to stay on track, China has rapidly accelerated the development of its own fusion capabilities. The country’s planned China Fusion Engineering Test Reactor, a domestic alternative to ITER, is expected to be completed by around 2035—potentially ahead of the delayed European project.

Experts argue that while fusion efforts in the U.S. and Europe are fragmented, China’s unified, long-term strategy, backed by significant state funding, gives it a better chance of success.

“Almost no weekends, no holidays for us,” said Xianzu Gong, a scientist at China's top research facility, the Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak, in an interview with Nature last year.

The urgency surrounding fusion energy has intensified, driven not only by global net-zero goals but also by the growing demand for electricity. A significant contributor to this surge is the rise of power-hungry artificial intelligence systems, with tech leaders predicting that AI could consume up to a quarter of the U.S.'s electricity by the end of the decade.

China’s fusion ambitions

This has sparked mounting concern that China may have gained an upper hand over the West. A report from the Washington-based Information Technology and Innovation Foundation last year indicated that while both the U.S. and China are advancing in fusion development, China’s ability to scale up reactor production—planning 150 reactors between 2020 and 2030—gives it a significant edge in deploying the technology on a larger scale.

The report further pointed out that the U.S. lacks a cohesive national fusion strategy. While U.S. government funding for fusion research is only half of China’s, private sector investment plays a more prominent role in the U.S., fueling a wave of fusion start-ups that promise innovation in the field. One such example is Helion, a start-up backed by Peter Thiel and Sam Altman of OpenAI, which aims to deliver fusion energy to Microsoft by 2028, recently securing $425 million from investors like SoftBank.

The UK is also home to promising fusion start-ups such as Tokamak Energy and First Light Fusion, supported by a rich scientific heritage. However, the Fusion Industry Association (FIA) recently warned that the UK risks losing its competitive edge to China. Despite housing “probably the greatest concentration of fusion skills on the planet” around Oxfordshire, the FIA emphasized that the UK government must establish a clear strategy for connecting fusion to the energy grid to secure the necessary investment.

Andrew Holland, FIA’s chief executive, believes that competing with China as a private company is an uphill battle. "I don't consider China to be in the lead right now," says Holland. "But am I worried about them in the future? The answer is yes. It’s very clear that the Chinese are able to build much faster."

In conclusion, as global efforts to harness fusion energy intensify, China’s growing advancements in the field present both an opportunity and a challenge to the West. The pace at which China is developing and scaling fusion technology underscores the need for a cohesive strategy and increased investment from nations like the U.S. and the UK.

Western fusion initiatives

With the stakes so high, the race for fusion could reshape the future of energy, climate policy, and geopolitical power dynamics for decades to come.
China's rapid progress in fusion research poses not only a technological challenge to the West but also an economic and strategic one.

The successful development of fusion could unlock energy independence for countries, provide virtually limitless clean energy, and revolutionize industries that rely heavily on large-scale power, such as artificial intelligence, electric vehicles, and heavy manufacturing. For China, mastering fusion would enhance its energy security and establish it as a dominant force in the global energy sector, offering substantial advantages in both geopolitical and economic terms.

While the U.S. and Europe focus on ambitious yet fragmented fusion initiatives, China’s coordinated, state-driven approach has allowed the country to make remarkable advancements. The scale of China’s planned investments, particularly its ability to build reactors at a pace far outstripping that of Western nations, gives it a critical edge in the race toward commercial fusion energy.

Additionally, China’s capacity to rapidly marshal resources positions it to potentially dominate global markets for fusion energy technology, further solidifying its leadership in this transformative field.

In conclusion

while the U.S. and Europe continue to lead in certain aspects of fusion research, China’s accelerated development and substantial investments are quickly narrowing the gap. The intensifying geopolitical competition for fusion supremacy is poised to reshape global power dynamics, with energy production—and control over fusion technology—becoming an increasingly vital factor in global influence. If China succeeds in making fusion commercially viable first, it may not only achieve energy independence but also gain considerable leverage on the world stage. In response, the West must adopt a more unified strategy and increase investment in innovation to remain competitive in this crucial race for the future of energy.